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Today’s Thoughts ☠️

Hey there 👋,

Somehow, we’ve (nearly) approached the end of another year.

For long-time readers, you’ll know I say this every year, but I don’t know where the time goes. One minute I was 21, and now I’m within touching distance of my 40’s.

What a strange life.

I’m not going to drag you into what feels like my incoming mid-life crisis.

No doubt, annual rounds of predictions will invade our feeds, emails and meetings in the regular end of year reflection ceremonies. I imagine most will go along the lines of “AI, AI…..AI….and AI!”.

Yet, there’s more (much more) to life and work than AI.

Yes, I did say that.

Today, I’m sharing 7 charts that have made me think deeply about what could be for L&D (and life) in 2025.

Get your tea or beverage of choice ready, 🍵.

We've got lots to discuss!

👀 In today’s chat:

• You (still) really are the master of your fate
  

• The face of workplace L&D in 2025

• Cutting through the noise to solve the real pains

(P.S. What do you think workplace L&D teams need to do to drive meaningful value for their business in 2025? Answer this one question survey to share your thoughts, and get exclusive access to the findings this December).

THE BIG THOUGHT
7 Powerful Charts That Will Change the Way You Approach L&D in 2025

The world is full of compelling charts.

These are the ones I’ve paid attention to and have been thinking deeply about for the state of workplace L&D. Plus, I’ve included my non-obvious takes on each.

📌 Key insights

• Don’t be so blinded by shiny objects that you miss the iceberg

• Managers still need help

• We’re still not unstuck from pre-AI problems

• Good work takes time, a lot more than you think

1/ The value of AI is specific to you

Everyone has an opinion on ‘how’ to use AI, or should I say, what’s right according to ‘x’ influencer.

My two cents, don't let others tell you what's good or bad.

We all have different lives, different jobs, and different tasks. For a lot of us, boring and basic use cases like crafting emails, summarising docs and asking quick questions are hugely helpful.

Not everyone needs to use workflows and AI agents.

Like any tool, you leverage it based on your context.

So, while you could do a million things with it, perhaps it's only those 2-3 things where you find the most value.

Thought to ponder

Before you can help people unlock the benefits of AI, understand their pains and problems.

Most of us don’t need complicated automations. We just want less time on email, and easier to digest meeting notes.

2/ We’re missing the point

I’ve talked a lot about AI this year - who hasn’t?

But I’m finding our industry is too busy being amazed at everything AI-related (please no more ‘game-changing’ posts) to see the iceberg waiting for us ahead.

I spoke about this a few weeks back in the edition we explored What Is AI Doing To Your Skills? 

Too many forget that AI is only as good as the human using it.

With all-time high levels of use across millions of Gen AI tools and all-time low levels of AI literacy, we could be heading for a skills car crash of our own design.

In sum: Treat Gen AI upskilling as a marathon, not a sprint

Thought to ponder

What’s the cost of inaction with AI upskilling?

New AI tools have become like an uncontrollable virus. They’re everywhere, but we know very few have any idea how to spot the snake oil and leverage the ones that are useful.

[Note: Shameless self-promo. My AI For L&D Crash Course will help you navigate this landscape like a pro].

3/ Did you forget about managers?

A weird thing has happened these last few years.

With AI-everything, I don’t hear anyone talk about anything else, and this concerns me. Do you remember when we used to talk about leadership development, LMS/LXPs, and onboarding programmes?

Those were the days.

My sense is these things weren’t miraculously solved overnight. I imagine most senior execs are saying, “Can AI do this for us?”. That makes me chuckle. So, are we still focused on getting the basics right or have we just put them to the side for this new romance?

Only you can answer that.

Earlier this year, the MindTools For Business intelligence team released a powerful report on “Building Better Managers.” The research is high-quality, as always. I admit, I’m a fanboy of their reports.

And yes. I cheated here. This is two charts in 1, don’t judge me!

Thought to ponder

Although we have shiny new things to play with, we can’t ignore the basics.

Managers and leaders still need support. You’re not going to ChatGPT-ify your way out of everything. Nor do you want to.

4/ You’re the master of your fate

One thought has occupied most people’s minds in the last 2 years.

“Is AI going to take my job?”

It might. I don’t know.

What I do know is it’s all in your hands. You can reshape a career, and you can learn new skills. While it might not always feel like it, there are many paths open to us at any given time.

Knowing this gives me comfort.

Things change. It’s the nature of life. But we can change too, and I think that’s a lot of what L&D is about. FYI, this isn’t from a report but the mind of Tim Urban, creator of Wait But Why.

Thought to ponder

Perhaps two thoughts here.

One for you and the other for those you serve.

For you, know that opportunities are always around. Maybe AI will change your job, and maybe that day never comes. No matter, as one of my favourite bands sang, “Life must go on”.

For those you serve (your customers), be their guide.

Provide the context to make sense of the skills dynamic today. How can they navigate your company and be successful?

5/ ROI takes more time than you think

We did a whole playbook on the power of slow (or slower) growth recently.

Yes, the below is focused on ‘time to productivity for AI based on company maturity’. However, you can substitute ‘AI’ for any tech.

One thing I’ve seen countless times is underestimating how long it really takes to embed a new tool or technology into a business.

I’m a realist.

I know we’re hardly given the time to make learning tech implementations stick. Senior execs expect you to make something that needs at least a year to happen in six weeks. I know that pain.

One of the golden questions in our profession is, “How do I showcase ROI?”.

The answer is ‘it depends’.

It depends on what measurements matter to your stakeholders and what you ultimately want to achieve. The reason that question crops up on every ‘x things L&D needs to focus on in x year’ is because there is no one answer.

Like most things in life, it’s complicated.

As I type these words, AI is the latest in the long line of “When will we see the benefits”.

Again, depends on what you measure as ‘success’. For some, you might find success in days, other weeks and most in years.

Thought to ponder

How can you build enough runway for you to successfully implement a new tool, behaviour or process?

Some of my best managers and mentors enabled me to do my best work by clearing the runway to give me the time needed to make something successful.

I know not everyone will have that luxury. But, if you’re in a leadership position, it is something to think about.

6/ Are we still stuck in our ways?

Don't let AI blind you to the fact that most L&D teams have been stuck at delivering surface-level impact for 20 years.

This is going to trigger some people.

L&D is about performance and impact.

I love this visual from the Mind Tools For Business research team (again) in their “Unlocking L&D Excellence” report.

They use a four-stage learning maturity model to study how different organisations behave. With this, they categorise organisations based on the impact of their L&D efforts.

Here’s what they found:

→ 51% of L&D teams surveyed sit at stage 1 with transactional interventions. They seem to be doing a lot in the business, but in reality, they’re achieving very little.

→ 23% of L&D teams surveyed sit at stage 2 - implementing L&D programs. These teams are a little smarter in what they focus on but lack enough connection across the business to deliver meaningful impact.

→ Only 15% of L&D teams surveyed sit at stage 3 with a proactive talent and performance strategy. These teams are found to make more purposeful decisions with an increased clarity of thought.

→ 11% of L&D teams surveyed sit at stage 4 with a high-impact learning culture. These are the highest-performing L&D orgs in the world. They do everything at all four levels and link it all back to business alignment.

Thought to ponder

Where would you put you and/or your team on this scale?

What can you do to change or strengthen that in 2025?

7/ Who do you want to be?

Probably the ultimate question for our industry.

I will be unpacking more on this next week, but for now, if you want to drive ‘real’ value, you might need to shift your perception of workplace learning.

Unsurprisingly, lots of us are worried about what AI will do to our roles. The truth is, we can never predict that.

What we can do is shape how we want the business to see us and what you want to be known for.

This image illustrates our predicament. It only changes if you take action.

I’m not saying it will be easy (it won’t trust me), but it can go some way to position the value of a modern L&D team in an age of “Let’s get AI to do everything for us”.

Thought to ponder

What do you want your L&D model to be in 2025?

📝 Final thoughts

There we have it.

No doubt you’ll have a lot of feelings and thoughts on these. You can tell me about those by hitting ‘reply’ to this mail or hit the ‘comment’ button below.

Till next time, you stay classy, learning friend!

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